I spent three weeks not looking up this number. That’s where I need to start, because if you’re reading this you are probably also not looking up the number, and I want to name that first.
You tell yourself you’re waiting until the decision feels more settled. What you’re actually doing is keeping the fear in the abstract, because abstractions are easier to carry than specifics. The specific number might be bad. The abstract number can be whatever size you need it to be on any given Tuesday.
Here is the specific number.
COBRA
My employer-sponsored health insurance costs me roughly $380 a month out of my paycheck. The company covers the rest, which I had never fully calculated until I started thinking about leaving.
When you leave a corporate job, COBRA lets you keep your existing coverage for up to 18 months. The catch: you pay your share and the company’s share and a 2% administrative fee. All of it. The same plan, but now you see what it actually costs.
My COBRA quote came in at $1,840 per month.
I sat with that number for a while. It is the kind of number that makes you feel like you made an error.
What I did not do: treat COBRA as a long-term plan. It is a bridge. If I leave in September, I could be on COBRA while I figure out the ACA marketplace, which takes some time and attention I may not have in the first weeks of going independent. Three months of COBRA while I get sorted is $5,520 I had not budgeted for. Annoying but survivable.
What I rejected: treating COBRA as the only option, which is what I was implicitly doing by not looking at the alternative.
The ACA Marketplace
The Affordable Care Act marketplace is where you shop if you are not on an employer plan. The price depends on your projected income for the year and your family size.
This is where I had to think carefully, and where the math gets a little uncomfortable.
If I leave in September and start bringing in consulting income in October and November, my 2026 income is going to be unusual. Some amount from the salary through September. Whatever I earn consulting in the fall. The marketplace calculates your premium subsidy based on projected annual income, and I have to estimate a year that is not done yet.
I used $80,000. Not zero, which would lower the premium significantly but would also trigger a repayment if I earned more than expected at tax time. Not my full salary, because I am not earning my full salary for the full year. $80,000 was a conservative estimate of what a partial consulting year might produce.
At $80,000 projected income for a family of four, the ACA marketplace estimate came in at roughly $1,100 per month.
That is $740 less than COBRA.
The friction I want to name
The thing I still do not love about ACA coverage: the estimator asks you to predict a year that is not finished. My 2026 income is genuinely unknown. I used my best projection. If I earn significantly more than projected, I owe back a portion of the premium subsidy when I file taxes next April. That is a real risk if consulting takes off faster than I expect, which is, in theory, the outcome I want.
I do not have a clean solution to this. I have a plan to revisit the estimate quarterly and adjust my withholding or set aside a buffer. It is imperfect. Most things about the first year of going independent are imperfect.
What I am not doing: using the imperfection as a reason not to plan. That is what the three weeks of not looking was.
What the math actually told me
I am still on my employer plan. This is not a post about switching. It is a post about finding out the number, because I could not find anyone who had just written down the number clearly without selling me something.
The number is between $1,100 and $1,840 a month, depending on how you handle the transition.
That is real money. It is also not the obstacle I was building it into. On a household budget of roughly $15,800 net per month, $1,100 is a meaningful line item that I can plan around. The fear was larger than the number.
If you’re running this math yourself: call HR and ask for your COBRA quote. You’re not committing to anything by asking. Then go to the ACA marketplace calculator and run your income two or three ways. Run the conservative number, not the optimistic one.
The gap between those two numbers is the fear made specific. Specific things you can budget for.
The abstract version is worse.